11 November 2026 in Warsaw: Independence March Security and Risk Assessment
Executive summary. This page is a short public summary of our complete special report, 11 November 2026: Security and Information Environment Assessment, updated every four hours until the end of 12 November. The full report adds what this page leaves out: a threat-rating dashboard, flashpoints and routes, the propaganda picture at home and abroad, and a rolling forecast for 10 to 12 November. It is available in two editions:
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Update of 9 November 2026, 18:30 CET. Plans for 11 November may change at short notice; we will update this page on 10 November at 09:00 and 18:00 CET.
Poland marks Independence Day on Wednesday, 11 November. This year the day follows the armed attack in Kraków on 7 November, in which six people were killed on the Rynek Główny. That attack has raised security preparations across the country and produced a wave of false claims about the Warsaw Independence March.
The march will go ahead. The government has said that no one intends to ban it and has described claims to the contrary as disinformation. The organisers confirm their plans, and the President has said he will take part. Organisers report three to four times last year's coach bookings, and the march is shaping up as a show of strength against the government, with the dispute over the Constitutional Tribunal as a leading theme.
Our assessment is that the physical security risk in central Warsaw on 11 November is HIGH, rising toward the day, driven by the expected scale of the crowd, a counter-demonstration, a political flashpoint near the march route and the use of pyrotechnics despite a ban. The risk of disinformation around the march is also HIGH, rising, with a peak on the day.
What changed today
National security review: on the afternoon of 9 November the Interior Minister chaired a briefing with the heads of the police, fire service and both security agencies, covering security for mass events on 11 November.
Flashpoint near the route: a protest camp has stood outside the Constitutional Tribunal for weeks, and a key court sitting is due on 10 November. Calls have circulated online for part of the march to divert toward the court and government buildings on al. Szucha. The march route is fixed and no assembly at the court has been notified.
Counter-demonstration route: the counter-demonstration is notified for 14:00 from Plac Unii Lubelskiej, via Plac Konstytucji, Piękna and Aleje Ujazdowskie toward Plac Trzech Krzyży. This passes within a few hundred metres of al. Szucha.
Barriers: concrete barriers are in place on Krakowskie Przedmieście, which is closed to traffic.
False claim rebutted: police in Kraków deny that large forces were moved from Kraków to Warsaw for 11 November.
Online threats: five people have been detained in connection with threatening online activity after the Kraków attack, and the government says false claims about the attack were amplified by bot and troll networks.
What is officially decided
Status: the Independence March in Warsaw goes ahead as a registered recurring assembly. Organisers forecast a very large turnout.
Route and timing: participants gather at Rondo Dmowskiego from 14:00. The march sets off at about 14:30 along Aleje Jerozolimskie and over the Poniatowski Bridge to the National Stadium grounds, where a closing rally is planned. The organisers' programme ends at about 20:00.
Closures: the city's traffic guide lists a full closure of the Poniatowski Bridge from 10:00, closures on Marszałkowska and parts of Aleje Jerozolimskie and Wybrzeże Szczecińskie, and tram services suspended on those streets during the march. Details may still change.
Security measures: carrying any weapon, loaded or unloaded, is banned in Warsaw on 11 November. Pyrotechnics are banned in the Warsaw region. A drone no-fly zone covers central Warsaw from 07:00 to 23:00. The national BRAVO and BRAVO-CRP alert levels remain in force until 30 November. Police will keep the march and counter-demonstrations apart.
Other cities: Wrocław, Gdańsk, Lublin and other cities are adding barriers, municipal vehicles as mobile barriers and patrols for their own events.
Kraków: city mourning continues to 11 November. Kraków's Independence Day events will go ahead without entertainment or the planned shooting range.
Confirmed facts
Fact | Confirmed position |
March status | Goes ahead; the government says there is no intention to ban it |
Start | Rondo Dmowskiego, gathering from 14:00, departure about 14:30 |
Route | Aleje Jerozolimskie, Poniatowski Bridge, National Stadium grounds |
Counter-demonstration | From 14:00, Plac Unii Lubelskiej toward Plac Trzech Krzyży |
Weapons | Carrying any weapon banned in Warsaw on 11 November |
Pyrotechnics | Banned in the Warsaw region |
Drones | No-fly zone over central Warsaw, 07:00 to 23:00 |
Alert level | BRAVO and BRAVO-CRP nationwide until 30 November |
Barriers | Concrete barriers on Krakowskie Przedmieście |
What was claimed, and what is established
What circulated | Status | What is established |
The government will ban or dissolve the march | False | The government says no one intends to ban it |
The Kraków attack was staged so the march could be cancelled | False | There is no basis for this claim |
The march is cancelled because of national mourning | False | National mourning covered 8 and 9 November; the march is confirmed |
Large police forces were moved from Kraków to Warsaw | False | Police in Kraków deny it |
Coaches to Warsaw will be blocked by the authorities | Unverified | No such measure has been announced |
The march will divert to the Constitutional Tribunal | Unverified | The route is fixed; no assembly at the court is notified |
The Kraków attacker came from the march milieu or the far right | Unverified | Prosecutors say it is too early to speak of motive or ideology |
A photo shows the Interior Minister with the Kraków attacker | Fabricated | AI-altered; referred to prosecutors |
Risk assessment
Warsaw march route and the Royal Route, 11 November, 14:00 to 21:00: HIGH, rising. A very large crowd, organised football-fan groups and probable use of flares despite the ban.
Al. Szucha and the Aleje Ujazdowskie to Plac Trzech Krzyży area, 11 November afternoon and evening: HIGH. The counter-demonstration route and the Tribunal dispute meet here; a break-off from the march toward this area is a realistic possibility, and clashes with police would then be likely.
Rest of central Warsaw, 11 November: ELEVATED. Closures, transport diversions and groups dispersing in the evening.
10 November: ELEVATED. Arrivals, the court sitting and possible protests at the Tribunal.
12 November: MODERATE, easing.
Kraków, 9 to 11 November: ELEVATED, stable. Mourning, memorial gatherings and scaled-down events.
Armed lone-actor or copycat attack: highly unlikely, but higher than in a normal year after Kraków. The impact would be severe.
Hoax threats against the march, schools or transport: a realistic possibility.
Disinformation: HIGH, rising, with a peak on the evening of 11 November. Footage from the day is highly likely to be used at home and abroad to show a Poland in chaos and to stoke Polish–Ukrainian hostility.
For travellers in Warsaw and other cities
Avoid Rondo Dmowskiego, Aleje Jerozolimskie, the Poniatowski Bridge and the National Stadium area from late morning to late evening on 11 November, unless attending.
Avoid al. Szucha, Aleje Ujazdowskie and Plac Trzech Krzyży on the afternoon and evening of 11 November, and keep an eye on the Tribunal area on 10 November.
Plan journeys around the closures and suspended tram lines, and allow extra time to reach the airports and main stations; expect heavy coach traffic into Warsaw on 10 and 11 November.
The period of dispersal, from about 19:00, carries the highest risk for passers-by as groups move toward stations and the city centre.
Do not carry any item that could be treated as a weapon in Warsaw on 11 November.
Staff who are visibly foreign, or who speak Ukrainian or Russian in public, may face verbal abuse near the march; keep movements short and discreet.
Treat claims of bans, shootings, bombs or route changes on the day as unverified until police or the city confirm them.
For the Kraków attack and the false claims around it, see our 9 November disinformation update and our 9 November situation update.
Full situation report This page is a public summary. Our complete report, with a detailed chronology, threat ratings by location and time window, conflicting claims and a forecast, is available to organisations and private clients in two editions:
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